{"id":1551,"date":"2018-04-17T13:01:26","date_gmt":"2018-04-17T17:01:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/parkinsonpost.com\/?p=1551"},"modified":"2018-04-17T13:01:26","modified_gmt":"2018-04-17T17:01:26","slug":"predicting-the-risk-of-parkinsons-disease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archiveparkinson.thedev.ca\/fr\/predicting-the-risk-of-parkinsons-disease\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the risk of Parkinson\u2019s disease"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"image<\/a>

Dr. Michael Schlossmacher<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

The idea of creating a mathematical model to predict who will develop Parkinson\u2019s disease struck Dr. Michael Schlossmacher as he read Brilliant Blunders<\/em>, a book about the significance of the mistakes five great scientists made.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe book is about understanding how errors are made, in part by quantifying risks,\u201d says Schlossmacher, a neurologist and professor at the University of Ottawa. \u201cThat made me think of other things we have already quantified and calculated in life \u2026 and I became intrigued by whether we could do that for Parkinson\u2019s risk.\u201d<\/p>\n

Schlossmacher is convinced that by entering known risk factors for Parkinson\u2019s into his model, it is indeed possible to predict who will get the disease.<\/p>\n

Researchers already know that age, chronic constipation, a reduced sense of smell, family history, chronic inflammation such as hepatitis or certain types of gastritis, certain environmental exposures, chronic infections, and gender are all risk factors. Men, for example, are 1.5-2 times more likely than women to develop Parkinson\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Schlossmacher and his colleagues, including Dr. Tiago Mestre and Dr. Doug Manuel, are combing through databases that include case files and histories of people doctors have followed over time. By entering data points they collect from those files into the model, and then comparing that to a subsequent diagnosis, they\u2019ll test the accuracy of their predictive scores.<\/p>\n

If the predictive model works, doctors could then work with people who have high scores to modify some of the risk factors, and potentially delay or avoid developing Parkinson\u2019s altogether.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe could then tell people \u2013 you have to fix your constipation \u2013 or you have to treat your chronic sinusitis more aggressively,\u201d Schlossmacher says.<\/p>\n

In the future, if researchers develop medicines or other interventions that could slow down Parkinson\u2019s progression or remove other risk factors, then it will be important to know who is most at risk in order to target them for the interventions, he adds.<\/p>\n

\"National<\/a>Revising his model until he gets it right is one of the tasks Schlossmacher has set himself, just as the scientists portrayed in Brilliant Blunders did.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s part of the scientific journey, to have an idea, to test it, and then to revise it,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Although Schlossmacher did his initial scientific training by studying Alzheimer\u2019s disease, he moved to Parkinson\u2019s research because he wanted to help speed up the progress into discovering causative genes and understanding the molecular mechanisms that produce it.<\/p>\n

Later, he learned that his grandfather and his aunt died of Parkinson\u2019s and dementia, and a cousin has the early-onset form of the illness. He\u2019ll factor those different forms of Parkinson\u2019s into his predictive modelling, convinced of its practical application.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not only a mind exercise, it\u2019s a very doable project,\u201d Schlossmacher says.<\/p>\n

Read about\u00a0other researchers<\/a>\u00a0recently funded by the Parkinson Canada Research Program by visiting the research section of\u00a0archiveparkinson.thedev.ca<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The idea of creating a mathematical model to predict who will develop Parkinson\u2019s disease struck Dr. Michael Schlossmacher as he … En savoir plus<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[237],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nPredicting the risk of Parkinson\u2019s disease - Parkinson Canada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predicting the risk of Parkinson\u2019s disease - Parkinson Canada\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The idea of creating a mathematical model to predict who will develop Parkinson\u2019s disease struck Dr. Michael Schlossmacher as he ... 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